Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
