Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
